Thursday, March 26, 2015

The Nation's Battlegrounds

In one year, every American born in or before 1998 will be eligible to cast their vote for the 45th president of the United States. Regardless of political affiliation, November 2016 and the months leading up to D-Day will be one exciting political whirlwind especially for this year’s batch of college students as it will be their first major election. Although the thrill of wearing an “I voted” sticker may be a very new sensation for many young Americans, knowledge of the nation’s political divide certainly is not.

It is no secret, even for the youngest of voters, that there are good handful of states that will always, always, always vote red and the other handful that will always, always, always vote blue. Political affiliation and party loyalty has deep roots in American history, so much so that it has become part of a region’s identity so logically, many states are hard pressed to swing. According to an article by TampaBay Times, eighteen states and the District of Columbia have voted democratic in the last six consecutive elections compared to thirteen that have voted conservative. Along with these eighteen states? 242 electoral votes out of 538. With the magic winning number being 270 electoral votes, a win should be cake for a Democratic candidate. According to conservative pundit George Will of Fox News Sunday, “if the Democratic presidential nominee can assume those [eighteen] states, he or she will spend the autumn of 2016 looking for 28 electoral votes, and he or she will find them.”

And that is why Governor Chris Christie holds very commanding power in the right wing. As governor of New Jersey, one of the eighteen states that has voted blue since Bill Clinton in 1992, being the republican representative for five years and counting is no small feat.

So what states will play battleground for the upcoming presidential election? Who will be the most valuable voters of 2016?

Here come the big players.

According to The Washington Post, the last presidential election of 2012 had nine “truly” crucial swing states: Colorado, Florida (no surprise there), Iowa (also no surprise), Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia, and Wisconsin. Given that there is currently only one official candidate for 2016, the battleground states have yet to be set in stone but sources tend to agree on a handful of the same states from election to election with the National Journal including Michigan and Pennsylvania (yay!) in the mix. Regardless of source however, Iowa is almost always one of the biggest players.

Looks like we’re not in Kansas anymore, Dorothy. As one of the nation’s whitest states (91% according to Huffington Post), it is quite surprising that this whitewashed, very wealthy, un-diverse state could play such a critical role in elections. So why is Iowa so important? The simple answer? It is the first state to weigh in during the presidential campaign. Iowa, along with New Hampshire, are so important that it is said that “losing both New Hampshire and Iowa can destroy a candidacy. Winning a sure path to nomination.”

With so much media attention (and we all know how influential the media is), it can be safely said that the ballots of Iowa hold significant power especially for the other swing states.

The bottom line for future voters who don’t want to stay up and watch all the votes come in? Wait for Iowa’s results (and New Hampshire if you want) and call it a day. It’s a 50-50 shot so might as well put the money on the Iowans.

For those hoping to put in a presidential bid in the future? You better work fast and build some roots in the Hawkeye State.



9 comments:

  1. Arkansas is one of the states that always votes Republican. However, no president has ever seen Arkansas as the state to win over because Arkansas only receives 6 electoral votes. I enjoyed reading your posts because I always watch the excitement from the other states play out on the news.

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  2. Very interesting to read. It always does seem weird that the Iowa Caucus is so important when it seems like such a small state with such a homogenous population. But Iowa really does switch between voting Republican or Democrat, which I think is good. The state seems to vote on the best candidate, rather than arbitrarily by party.

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  3. Very interesting to read. It always does seem weird that the Iowa Caucus is so important when it seems like such a small state with such a homogenous population. But Iowa really does switch between voting Republican or Democrat, which I think is good. The state seems to vote on the best candidate, rather than arbitrarily by party.

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  4. I am very excited for this 2016 election, because I feel like it could be anyone's guess as to who will win. The last two elections (especially 2008) seemed to be a lock for the Democratic Party, but after arguably dismal approval ratings for President Obama, it will be interesting to see how much ground the GOP gains on the Dems (hopefully not much ;) ).

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  5. I remember during the 2008 election I was sitting in on a rehearsal, and out of nowhere a girl backstage screamed "HE WON THE NORTHEAST!" and an overwhelming cheer from backstage and onstage enveloped the scene onstage. I never knew that only so many states were needed in order for an election to be considered "over" until then. I guess our votes will count more than ever next year.

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  6. As time passes and the divide grows, I feel that there will be more swing states. Low voting rates are a problem, but if people are more informed how it will affect their lives, then people are more likely to go to the polls. Policies and ideas are changing constantly, so it may be hard to predict what will happen in the future.

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  7. As time passes and the divide grows, I feel that there will be more swing states. Low voting rates are a problem, but if people are more informed how it will affect their lives, then people are more likely to go to the polls. Policies and ideas are changing constantly, so it may be hard to predict what will happen in the future.

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  8. Swing states always provide for an exciting election and I like how you mentioned the demographics of Iowa and how they are still able to be a major state in deciding which way an election will go. I am excited to follow the 2016 election and receive the "I voted" sticker as well!

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  9. I'm not a political junkie by any means, but I really enjoy following the campaigns that lead up to big elections. I find it so interesting to observe the influence of specific states and see how the entire elections plays out because of a particular group that could swing in either direction. Swing states definitely make things interesting!

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